Busıness Decısıon Models

Yanıt Açıklaması: In decision making under certainty, the decision maker knows outcomes of events for each decision alternative. In this case, because the decision maker knows everything about the problem, it is easier to make the best decision.

Yanıt Açıklaması: There are some different methods used in decision making under uncertainty. -Equally Likely (Laplace) -Criterion of Optimism (Plunger) -Criterion of Pessimism (Wald) -Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz) -Minimax Regret (Savage) In this sense, the correct answer is option E.

Yanıt Açıklaması: In the minimization models, the objective function is alternatively named cost function. The reason for this is the ultimate goal of minimizing something is to reduce loss or “cost”. The correct answer is B.

Yanıt Açıklaması: The decision tree is a graphical technique that represents all the elements in the decision problem with various geometric symbols. It provides all the elements and details of the decision problem, as well as graphically, and performs the expected value calculations on the tree and provides the solution of the problem at the same time.

Yanıt Açıklaması: LINEAR PROGRAMMING BASICS Operations research is an analytical method for the management of organizations that provides mathematical solutions to decision-making problems. There are definitive steps of this approach that make it analytical: 1. Problem definition 2. System analysis for the problem and data gathering 3. Model construction 4. Model solution and testing 5. The decision of implementing the solution The correct answer is E.

Yanıt Açıklaması: There are four events in the problem. So, the probability of occurrence of each event is 1/4. District 1 = 10.000*1/4 + 12.500*1/4 + 15.000*1/4 + 16.500*1/4 = 13.500 TL District 2 = 15.000*1/4 + 17.000*1/4 + 18.000*1/4 + 24.500*1/4 = 18.625 TL District 3 = 12.000*1/4 + 13.000*1/4 + 20.000*1/4 + 32.000*1/4 = 19.250 TL District 4 = 21.000*1/4 + 25.000*1/4 + 27.000*1/4 + 40.000*1/4 = 28.250 TL Since the objective of this decision problem is maximization, decision maker chooses the highest value among the alternatives. The decision maker selects district 4 with 28.250 TL.

Yanıt Açıklaması: A3 with 14 is the most appropriate decision according to equally likely method.

Yanıt Açıklaması: The decision maker is a little optimistic, a little pessimistic and the method that involves both cases is called Criterion of Realism .

Yanıt Açıklaması: In decision making, instead of expected monetary value (EMV), it can also be used the expected opportunity loss (EOL) criterion, which is another approach based on a decision will be taken, also known as expected regret.

Yanıt Açıklaması: The fourth step in the decision-making process is "Identifying the possible outcomes for each decision alternative."

Yanıt Açıklaması: Either it is the objective or the constraints, every function is the sum of the individual contribution of the respective variables. This is called the additivity assumption, which prohibits cross-product terms in the expressions of a linear program. This assumption restricts the model design as well. The correct answer is B.

Yanıt Açıklaması: Some decisions are easy to make while some are more difficult. There might be many reasons. Not e nough information , uncertainty situations, s carce source , psychological factors, lots of alternatives, high cost of making errors are the reasons. The correct answer is 'C'.

Yanıt Açıklaması: (0.8) (0.2) / ((0.2) (0.8) + (0.8) (0.2)) = 0.5 . pg. 49 . Correct answer is D.

Yanıt Açıklaması: Bayes’ theorem is basically a process of revising the known possibilities of an event under the light of new knowledge. The correct answer is B.

Yanıt Açıklaması: Operations research is an analytical method for the management of organizations that provides mathematical solutions to decision-making problems. There are definitive steps of this approach that make it analytical: 1. Problem definition 2. System analysis for the problem and data gathering 3. Model construction 4. Model solution and testing 5. The decision of implementing the solution The correct answer is C.

Yanıt Açıklaması: In this criterion, the decision maker confronts the various possible states of nature in a decision under risk and; he or she chooses the alternative that is best for the most likely state of nature, rather than calculating in all states of nature. With another saying, it states that the decision maker should ignore all possible events except the one most likely to occur, and should select the best possible result (maximum gain or minimum loss) in the given circumstances.

Yanıt Açıklaması: The last assumption is certainty, which means that each parameter of a linear programming model is constant in all conditions. The correct answer is B.

Yanıt Açıklaması: In application of to the Criterion of Pessimism, if the problem is maximization, the worst outcome is the lowest value. However, the best alternative (maximum value) of these worst outcomes is chosen. According to this; The minimum value for A1 = 3 The minimum value for A2 = 5 The minimum value for A3 = 3 The minimum value for A4 = 7 The minimum value for A5 = 2 Among these values, the highest is 7, and this belongs to A4.

Yanıt Açıklaması: In the Minimax Regret criterion, regardless of the objective function, the smallest value is always selected from the regret matrix.

Yanıt Açıklaması: A3 with 27 is the most appropriate decision according to criterion of optimism.